In the Uganda Political Causality, its very possible for thieves and men that enjoy having sex with little girls to become superstars overnight. The political scene in Uganda requires you not to have a plan for Uganda… as we shall see next week.
Why are known thieves, murderers,Parasites,etc. fighting for your attention?
The amateurish presentations by the Rwandan born criminal, Yoweri Museveni and the Burundi Born serial thief, Amama Mbabazi……the lack of originality, and boot licking of imperialism.
WATCH THIS SPACE NEXT WEEK-Meanwhile enjoy this good read:
TO: The Head Special Duties State House, The Republic of Uganda
FROM: JOEL ISABIRYE AND MPIIRWE NICHOLAS (MESSE)
DATE: 30th JUNE 2015
RE: MOBILIZATION THROUGH MEDIA
Since we started work on the mobilization project, we have progressed a bit but need to do much more in the month of July 2015. After our various meetings beginning with the first one on the 17th of March 2015 at State House, we started promoting candidate Museveni for 2016.
The Current Issues
The first issue is aspiring candidate Amama Mbabazi.At 4am on Monday 15th of June 2015, Mbabazi announced that he was going to stand. His announcement was made via YouTube a social networking site for videos. His presentation was lacking energy and he seemed very timid. Nevertheless the excited groups on social media went in overdrive to celebrate his announcement.
Besides other mobilization efforts we are undertaking, that evening at 9pm, we met and made a strategy. The first was to undermine Mbabazi’s candidature online.
On Facebook, Joel Isabirye has been a commentator on social, economic and political events in the East African region. In the 2013 elections in Kenya, he made commentaries that both Kenyan and Ugandan Journalists would follow. See for example a statement by Geoffrey Kulubya Editor of Bukedde Newspaper in a conversation that I had with him:
So when Mbabazi announced I went online and demonstrated how Mbabazi would fair. It was a fairly balanced comment but clearly showed that Museveni would carry the day in 2015. As such many believed that it was a well reasoned view and they saw that while Mbabazi appears to be vibrant on social media, on the ground he is not present.
June 26 at 1:03pm · Edited ·
could amama mbabazi (as is being alleged) have paid the c.e.o. magazine to cook and release results of an online survey that shows he was the favorite candidate to win the 2016 presidential elections in uganda?i don’t think so.he is not the type.i also do not think the c.e.o. magazine would make such a deal.i actually believed the outcomes of that survey because mbabazi is exceptional strong on social media.however there are as i always say 5.4 million ugandans on facebook-and a slightly higher number with online access (that is those in uganda and outside uganda).statistically that is kampala x2.on the ground (across the country) candidate museveni registers more appeal.indicators show that museveni will win 2016 by 85%.it could turn out less or more because many intervening variables could occur between now and march 2016.but mbabazi will change how politics (especially those who oppose) should be organized and performed.it will be with more decency, more systematic and laden with legal overtones.three of the driving factors for voter behavior in elections in Uganda are: 1.how often the voter sees (not hears) the candidate throughout the five interceding years between elections (at burials, at funerals, launching projects, at weddings and introduction ceremonies ,at churches etc).elections are rarely won in the campaign period.that is why new politicians (from lc1 to others) are advised to contest in one election as an introduction and then begin the process of the five years to the next elections 2.the groceries brought around by the candidate at the moments at which they are seen in the interceding years and during the election period.3.service delivery issues (a distant consideration).mbabazi’s main barrier is time more than anything else.there are 112 districts in uganda.each has at least 5 major trading centers and 1 town.to traverse each one daily (without including the 300 villages minimum in each district) to strongly sell yourself, you need 622 days.that is close to two years.if his sacking had been delayed, he would have been lucky to use his position as prime minister to criss cross the country.and due to minimal internet access, social media is largely ‘unpresent’ in the vast countryside.one option he has is to book advertising on the 227 radio stations nationwide declaring himself as an aspirant.he needs at least 12 billion to do that over the next four months before nomination.that he can afford if all the stations accept to run his advertisements viz a viz the electoral laws.in these circumstances,his adverts would have to be as aspirant.he would have to do several feedback type advertisements (with ivr and sms response platforms) telling people he is planning to stand and seeking their opinion and what they would want him to address if he stood as opposed to promoting a manifesto and agenda.back to the polls.one appeal i have had for ugandan opinion pollsters is to include a classification question of: are you a registered voter? that question would filter voters from non-voters in the process giving more accurate indications of the vote preference within registered voters and non-registered voters.as of now generalized polls are highly speculative.but museveni will win 2016.the margins being contingent on the intervening variables between now and then
Current research in Kampala if elections were held today
In total sample of 600, President Yoweri Museveni scored 57.3% followed by Kizza Besigye with 25.3%, followed by Amama Mbabazi with 10.3% followed by Nobert Mao with 2.6% followed by Gilbert Bukenya with 2.3% and lastly Professor Baryamureeba with 2%.
We conducted this survey across the five divisions of Kampala with a split of 120 people per division. It cost us 4 million shillings to do. We used some of the money we were given in June (Messe brought 2 million shillings Joel brought 2 million shillings). We needed an accurate survey because we needed to know our strengths and weaknesses. We want to release this survey to social media but needed your approval first.
Costs were as follows:
1. Field Assistants 5 x 100,000 x 8 days
2. Data Entry and processing (Joel Isabirye)
Breakdown for each division
In all divisions we win except Kawempe. However in terms of margins our strongest performance is in Nakawa, followed by Rubaga, followed by Central, followed by Makindye and followed by Kawempe. Kawempe needs more effort from what we see.
UPDATES AND INTERVENTIONS
Our update on the state of our sector and the key interventions were presented as follows:
1.Uganda went digital on 27th June.70% of the country is yet to get Set Top Boxes required to enable Digital Signal reception on their TV Sets. The Set Top Boxes are quite expensive and range from 90,000 to 160,000 shillings.
2.49% of Capital Radio Limited was bought by Times Group of South Africa trying to gain national reach with the funds acquired. They are buying stations left right and centre. However they are not a hostile station because Capital Gang their main political talk show of influence has our representation through Ofwono Opondo and Moses Kidandi the producer. However Kidandi is showing signs of wavering. I have discussed seeing him with Messe so that we can take care of his issues. If we did so we can fix the agenda onwards to 2016. We also want to talk to Marcus the host of the breakfast show on Capital Radio practically. If our budget is approved we shall see him.
3.Godfrey Kaaya Kavuma retired as Managing Director of CBS. Michael Kawoya Mwebe took over. Has changed CBS 89.2 to become a youth radio station. It however still features the old presenters. Meddie Nsereko on that station is sympathetic to us. We need to engage with him more at this time.
4.Gordon Wavamuno sold Wavah FM 102.1 to FUFA at 1.5 billion shillings. Moses Magogo at the helm is sympathetic to us more because he needs government support to FUFA. We need to enter that radio station. I have been offered a consultancy task which I am still discussing with them. We shall advance our agenda in there.
5.Gaster Lule Ntakke has opened Delta TV a Buganda leaning television station. He is working with Abbey Mukiibi of CBS. We have Katongole Omutongole in there. Katongole is both a presenter on Beat FM and on Delta. He has considerable influence and is sympathetic to us. He needs to be seen to become more consistent. Our challenge with him is that he wants to contest against Sulaiman Madada in Bbale Kayunga. However we can avoid that for the time being.
6. Monitor Publications Limited (MPL) Head of Radio Richard Ringa has resigned. They are searching for a new Head of Radio. I recommended one of our collaborators Moses Ateng Kasaijja who is currently managing radio west. If he is taken, we shall have full control of both KFM and Dembe FM. If he is not we still have our people in there who we shall see often. They include Kasuku, Roger Mugisha, Chris Obore and Sam Gombya. If Ateng remains at Radio West, we are certain we shall have full control of the most powerful station in the West.
1. We should immediately mobilize among broadcasters by sympathizing with their causes:
(a) Contribute to those who are in sickness.
(b) Contribute to funerals (Baale Francis, Ruth Nankabirwa, Chris Obore wife was good).
(c) Contribute to Weddings, Kwanjulas and Graduations. We need to contribute to the planned weddings of Eseza Omuto and Catherine Kusasira. We should have a budget of 3 million stand by per month. That is 36 million per year. We will not use all of it in one month.
(d) Appoint Presidential Advisor on the sector. I am willing to take this role.
(2) Organize Broadcast Managers training (June 2015) for mobilization. This will cost 24 million for 4 regions of Uganda. We need to shift to July.
(3) Set up Broadcast Mobilization network (presenters and fans) June 2015 for 2016. Will cost 150,000,000 per quarter until 2016 (300,000,000). We have talked to all the presenters and fans we need to talk to and need this money to start. We can have it for July 2015.
1.Capital Radio 91.3 (Marcus)
2.Super FM 88.5 (Messe)
3.CBS Radio 89.2 (Meddie Nsereko)
4.Beat FM 96.3 (Katongole)
5.Radio Simba 97.3 (Ndawusi)
6.Bukedde FM 100.5 (Bills Butodenne)
7.KFM 93.3 (Roger Mugisha)
8.Dembe FM 90.4 (Sam Gombya)
9.Top Radio 89.6 (Kamagu)
10.Impact FM 98.4 (Jamada?)
11.Akaboozi 87.9(Michael Kisenyi)
12. Galaxy FM 100.2 (DJ Nimrod)
13. Suubi FM 104.9 (Orlando)
14.Baba FM 87.7 (Tony Wantimba)
15.NBS Radio 89.4 (DJ Bryan)
16.Kiira FM 88.6 (Kifubangabo)
17.Eye FM (94.6) (Jamil Kidudu)
18.KBS 105.9 (yet to get someone)
19. Open Gate FM 103.2 (Emmanuel Mango)
20. Time FM 95.0 (Byron Wambende)
21. Elgon FM 101.4 (tricky because it is owned by Mafabi)
22.Step FM 99.8 FM (Susan Nakirijja)
23. Etop FM 99.4 (Denis Ejupu Adwong)
24. Teso Broadcasting Services 87.6 (TBS) (Peter Ebau)
25. Kyoga Veritas 91.5 (John Omoding)
26.All Karamoja FM 94.7 (not yet got someone)
27. Nenah FM 104.7 (not yet got one)
28. Radio Wa 89.8 (not yet got someone)
29. Rhino FM 96.1 (not yet got someone)
30. Voice of Lango 88 FM (not yet got someone)
31. Radio Lira 95.3 FM (not yet got someone)
32. Mega FM 102.1 (Catherine Okello)
33. Rupiny FM 95.7 (Augustine Okello)
34. Arua One 88.7 (Stella Atizuyo)
35. Radio Paidha 87.8 (Janice Okumu)
36. Liberty FM 89.0 (Mzee Kibaki-Ivan Batuboine)
37. Radio Hoima 88.6 (not yet got)
38. Spice FM 89.9 (Uncle Snow-Moses Kirungi)
39. Radio Kitara (not yet got)
40.Bunyoro Broadcasting Services (BBS) 98.2 (not yet got)
41. Radio West (Patrick Mulwadde)
42. Radio West (Robert Kakyebezi)
43.Vision FM (Mutembandejje)
44.Vision FM (not yet got)
45.Crooze FM (not yet got)
46.Crooze FM (not yet got)
47. Endigito FM (DJ Western)
48.Endigito FM (Kasirivu)
49. Voice of Toro (not yet got)
50. Gold FM (DJ Nesta)
51. Voice of Muhabura (not yet got)
52. Voice of Muhabura (not yet got)
53. Voice of Kigezi (Cryton)
54. Voice of Kigezi (kakyene)
The rest of the stations we are still looking for presenters to work with. Lack of funds is a big problem. We need to travel and meet them or at least make phone calls.
(4) Organize Presidential Broadcast Journalist training for 400 journalists (100 per region). It will cost 60,000,000 shillings. This needs to be done in July and will be a mobilization strategy for us. I will conduct the training. In this training ideology and Museveni for 2016 will be marketed.
(5) Offer 2 million set top boxes to Ugandans at 160,000 (3.2 billion shillings). Beera Digital ne President Yoweri Museveni. We can reduce this to 90,000 for each Set Top Box. This will be a winner because people are struggling to get into the digital era.
It is vibrant and growing
8.4 million Ugandans online
Majority use Facebook and Whatsapp
We need to promote Mzee more online but also provide jobs for youths online. We also need to sensitize the youth on wealth creation opportunities.
1. Set up a Special Duties Facebook Page to highlight the past, present and future with President Yoweri Museveni. We have set this up and are amazed at how much people are joining the page. We are updating it and creating material that is useful to show the significance of Mzee.
2.Set up the online jobs advisory platform
-List local and international job opportunities
-Help advise on how to get and keep jobs
This one is still pending because it requires 5,000,000 for set up. It also requires
4,000,000 per month for maintenance.
2.Expand the Ebbaluwa and Monday Times Daily Coverage (for mobilization)
This requires 30,000,000 shillings per month. We have not yet got this money but started this and we have the results to show although we are working under difficult conditions to cover what we want to cover. We want to go on the ground and collect pro-Museveni views recorded and uploaded on the pages to say for example “Mbale Youth support Museveni.”
3.We want to set up Truth about Uganda and Napoleon Wapakhabulo Account to counter Ugandans at Heart and Tom Voltaire Okwalinga respectively
This requires 3,000,000 shillings per month to maintain
We need to talk to the music industry and pick its icons early. The field is extremely vibrant and part of national consciousness. It however lacks professionalism that can make the careers and investments of Uganda musicians sustainable.
1.Mobilize among musicians by sympathizing with their causes:
(a) Contribute to sickness (Mamuli Katumba, Hajat Madina)
(b) Contribute to funerals (AK 47 was good)
(c) Contribute to Weddings, Kwanjulas and Graduations
2.Organize Music Industry Training
(a) Music Managers Workshop (July 2015)
100 musicians (20,000,000).
We are ready to conduct this workshop and use it as a mobilization tool to promote Mzee.
3.Church Choir Recording Programme
10 Choirs per region x 3,000,000 = 120,000,000
OUR WORK ON EBBALUWA AND MONDAY TIMES
We started intensive work in the two online media channels that we run. These are Ebbaluwa newspaper (a Luganda newspaper located on www.ebbaluwa.co.ug
) and Monday Times newspaper (an English newspaper located onwww.mondaytimes.co.ug
The mobilization on the two newspapers included writing positive articles about Mzee and driving readership to understand why Uganda desperately needs Mzee more than Mzee needs Uganda. Wherever we could find news that would promote the cause we could turn it to our advantage.
This can be exemplified by the following articles:
1. Moses Ali agambye “temulonda Mbabazi”
2. Nabillah yeyongedde okukyankalaanya FDC (to show disorganization in FDC)
3. Museveni atongozza ennyonyi ya NRM
4. Museveni alabudde abakozesa Watisapu
5. Abasuubuzi bawadde NRM obuwuumbi 12
6. Aba FDC begase ku NRM ewa Mbabazi
7. FDC egobye Sejusa
8. Nsereko awolerezza Muhoozi
Monday Times coverage
1. Hillary Musoke on Why Museveni is best for Uganda
2. Amama Mbabazi’s Shs.11M water bill leaks
3. Bahati says Mbabazi cannot be president
4. Tycoon Ham gives Museveni 200M
5. Sudhir gives Museveni 3 billion for campaigns
6. Nyombi Thembo warns Mbabazi
7. Mbabazi’s story misses out working for Amin
8. Amama and Besigye fail to agree on candidate
9. Kayihura tells Besigye to follow the law
10. NRM registration extended to Sunday
11. Saleh promotes agriculture at MUBS
12. Why Museveni will win 2016
13. Why Baryamureeba cannot beat Museveni
14. Justice Kavuma throws out Mbabazi petition